Saul's problem started when he would not listen to the Word of God. Man wanted a man King and they got one in Saul. The warning went out that this was wrong but Saul would not listen
You are right about the fact that we can make up our own mind except for the elect. Hot or cold is better than luke warm.
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Maranatha 
Mat 7:14 Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.